RESUMO
BACKGROUND: There are no validated prognostic instruments to evaluate severe Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. OBJECTIVE: To validate the prognostic value of the Baylor Profound Mental Status Examination (BPMSE). METHODS: We selected 200 patients with severe AD. The following prognostic variables were collected: hospitalization, use of the emergency room, death, and prescription of drugs. ROC curve analysis was performed to see the overall behavior of the test when predicting the adverse event. We analyzed the AUC ROC and the best cut point was determined, and by using contingency tables, the risk was calculated. RESULTS: For a BPMSE ≥16 points, there was a risk of 1.8 (95% CI 0.9-3.4) of prescription of psychotropic drugs in 12 months. For memantine in 12 months, for a BPMSE ≥16 points, there was a risk of 2.9 (95% CI 1.1-7.2). Emergency room visits, for a BMPSE ≤15 points, showed a risk of 1.7 (95% CI 1-3.2). The risk of hospitalization at 12 months, for a BPMSE ≤15, was 1.4 (95% CI 0.8-2.6). When comparing medians, patients with a higher BPMSE were prescribed more drugs at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: BPMSE has a limited predictive value for the variables studied.
